Copper Price Outlook 2027: Bank Scenarios Compared
Canonical forecasts: For the full 2026 copper price prediction roundup (bank thesis detail, AI models, futures curve, and investment strategy), start with our copper price prediction 2026 pillar. This page is a short companion focused on 2027 year-end / average scenario targets only.
Updated September 2026: LME copper cash sits near $14,529/t (~$6.59/lb as of Sep 18, 2026). Many earlier “2027 bull” labels near $15,000/t are already partly realized in 2026 spot. Treat the table below as a map of scenario labels from early-cycle research, not a fresh consensus poll and not invented new bank numbers.
Why a separate 2027 page?
The prediction pillar answers “what do banks and models say for 2026 averages and peaks?” Investors still ask a narrower question: if the deficit narrative holds, where do the same houses land by 2027? That is the only job of this note: one scenario table, brief triggers, and a pointer back to the pillar for methodology and portfolio framing.
Bank 2027 scenario table
Targets below are the scenario labels commonly associated with each house’s published outlook (bull / base / bear framing). Figures are illustrative of the range of Street narratives, not live Bloomberg consensus.
| Bank | 2027 scenario label | Approx. target | Scenario type | Core assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Stockout path | ~$15,000/t | Bull | Inventories critically low; structural deficit deepens |
| Bank of America | Supply crunch | ~$13,000/t | Base-bull | Little major mine supply until late decade |
| UBS | Data center upside | ~$12,500/t | Base-bull | Grid and AI copper intensity underpriced |
| Citi | Steady deficit | ~$12,000/t | Base | Mid-hundreds-kt annual deficit; China stabilizes |
| Morgan Stanley | Secular grind | ~$11,500/t | Base | Electrification offsets cyclical soft patches |
| Deutsche Bank | Cost-curve support | ~$10,500/t | Base | Prices need to stay high enough to fund capex |
| JP Morgan | Recession path | ~$9,500/t | Bear | Demand destruction from a hard landing |
How to use this: compare columns, not headlines. A “$15,000” label and a “$9,500” label can both be “correct” under different macro paths. For 2026 averages, peaks, and bank-by-bank why, use the prediction pillar.
Three paths into 2027
Bull (roughly 25%): Exchange inventories stay critically tight, Chile/Peru disruptions stack, and China grid / EV / data center demand holds. Prices can sit near or above the mid-teens $/t band (spot already ~$14,529/t in September 2026). See also copper supply crisis 2025-2030.
Base (roughly 50%): Deficit persists but without a stockout. African expansions offset some grade decline. Prices remain elevated versus history, often discussed in a high-$12,000s to mid-$15,000s zone depending on China, rather than a return to sub-$11,000 averages.
Bear (roughly 25%): Global manufacturing slump or a sharper China property hit flips the balance sheet into temporary surplus. Scrap and substitution add supply. Prices can retest the high-$8,000s to low-$12,000s before the structural story reasserts. From September’s ~$6.59/lb, that is still a meaningful drawdown.
For why prices already rose into 2026 (tariffs, Chile, EVs, AI, inventories), read why copper price is rising in 2026.
What this page does not cover
- Detailed bank thesis write-ups and 2026 average targets
- AI / ML model forecasts and futures curve interpretation
- Investor-type allocation playbooks
Those live in Copper Price Prediction 2026. Use this table when you only need a 2027 scenario grid; use the pillar when you need the full forecast stack.