The Bull, The Bear, and The Base Case

• Goldman Sachs (Bull Case): $15,000/tonne by end of 2026. Driven by “stockouts” (literally running out of metal in warehouses).
• Citi (Base Case): $12,000/tonne. A steady grind higher as demand outpaces supply by 500k tonnes.
• JP Morgan (Bear Case): $9,500/tonne. Recession fears cap the upside, keeping prices range-bound but high.

Our Take

The downside seems limited to ~$8,500 (marginal cost of production). The upside is uncapped. The risk-reward ratio is heavily skewed to the upside.