Protectionism and Prices

A “Trump 2.0” era implies higher tariffs and an acceleration of “Reshoring” (bringing factories back to America).

The Bullish Case

• Re-industrialization: Building new factories in Ohio and Texas requires… you guessed it, copper.
• Weak Dollar policy: If the administration pushes for a weaker dollar to help exports, commodities (priced in dollars) mathematically rise.

The Bearish Risks

• Trade War with China: If global trade slows down significantly, global GDP drops, which usually hurts copper.
• Inflation: Tariffs are inflationary. While copper is an inflation hedge, skyrocketing interest rates to fight that inflation could hurt demand.

Net Impact

Volatility. We expect prices to be erratic but trending higher as the “America First” buildout competes with China’s resource hoarding.