The Perfect Storm

A “Supercycle” is defined as a prolonged period (decades) where commodity prices trend well above their long-term average due to a structural shift in demand. The last one was China’s industrialization (2000-2011). The 2026 Supercycle is bigger.

The Three Pillars of the Bull Case

1. AI & Data Centers:

   • A Chat-GPT query uses 10x the energy of a Google search.
   • Data centers are upgrading power infrastructure massively. They need copper busbars, cooling pipes, and transmission lines.
   • This is “new” demand that didn’t exist 5 years ago.

2. The Green Transition (Net Zero):

   • Solar and Wind are physically metal-intensive. You need 5x more copper per MW for a wind farm than for a coal plant.
   • EVs use 3-4x more copper than gas cars.
   • This isn’t a “choice” anymore; it’s law in the EU and potentially US mandates.

3. Chronic Underinvestment:

   • Miners spent the last decade pleasing shareholders with dividends instead of exploring for new mines.
   • It takes ~16 years to open a new mine from discovery to production. Supply cannot react fast enough.

The Prediction

We expect copper to decouple from general GDP. Even if the economy slows, the essential nature of copper for strategic national security (energy independence) will keep a floor under the price. $15,000/tonne is not a meme; it’s a supply-demand mathematical probability by 2028.